Extincting Africa? What it means to have a 4 Degree Warmer World

Njenga Hakeenah

19^th November 2013

Africa, a continent which is among the poorest of continents, has its future teetering as the financial burden on several fronts soar.

Unless something is done urgently, a warmer globe will mean huge financial challenges in adapting to climate change for a continent which emits the least of greenhouse gas emissions.

These aftermath of a 4 degree warmer world are contained in a new report by the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) that spells out the costs faced by the continent if governments fail to close the “emissions gap” to keep warming below 2°C. 

Njoro township in Nakuru. This would be come a costly town to live in
due to degradation and limited resources   Photo: Njenga Hakeenah  

Adaptation costs for Africa could reach approximately USD $ 350 billion annually by 2070. This is if the two-degree target will be significantly exceeded, while the cost would be around USD $150 billion lower per year if the target was to be met.

The report; Africa’s Adaptation Gap, released today and endorsed by the African Ministerial Conference on the Environment (AMCEN) whose secretariat is hosted by UNEP, confirms the World Bank’s Turn Down the Heat Reports that there is a 40 per cent chance that we will inhabit a ‘3.5-4°C World’ if mitigation efforts are not stepped up from current levels. 

The African continent already faces adaptation costs in the range of US $7-15 billion per year by 2020. These costs will rise rapidly after 2020, since higher levels of warming will result in higher impacts. 
The combination of adaptation costs with “residual” damages could reach 4 per cent of Africa’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by 2100, under a 3.5-4°C scenario. 

 If no adaptation measures are taken, damages are expected to cost 7 per cent of African GDP by 2100 in a ‘3.5-4°C World’, according to the Africa Gap report.

The report further cautions that, even if the world does manage to get on track to keep warming below 2°C, Africa’s adaptation costs will still hover around USD $35 billion per year by the 2040s and USD $200 billion per year by the 2070s —with total costs reaching 1 per cent of the continent’s GDP by 2100.

“Missing the 2°C window  will not only cost governments billions of dollars but will risk the lives and livelihoods of hundreds of millions of people on the African continent and elsewhere,” said UN Under-Secretary General and UNEP Executive Director, Achim Steiner.  

 “Even with a warming scenario of under 2°C by 2050, Africa’s undernourished would increase 25 - 90 per cent. Crop production will be reduced across much of the continent as optimal growing temperatures are exceeded. The capacity of African communities to cope with the impacts of climate change will be significantly challenged.”

“I would like to welcome the decision by AMCEN to endorse the recommendations of the Africa Gap report; an important step towards strengthening political will and building resilient national policies.”

“Additional adaptation funding and technical know-how are imperative if Africa is to move towards a climate-resilient green future path. There is for example a need to develop drought-resistant crops, build early warning systems, invest in renewable energy sources and ensure that the catastrophic impacts of climate change are controlled or, better still, avoided ,” he added.

UNEP’s Emissions Gap Report -  launched days ahead of the UN Climate Conference in Warsaw – analyzes in much more detail and confirms that current pledges by individual countries to limit emissions by 2020 would lead to a global temperature increase of about3.5-4°C warming by 2100 – unless emissions are reduced now and substantially reduced afterwards.

Even if nations meet their current climate pledges, greenhouse gas emissions in 2020 are likely to be 8 to 12 gigatonnes of CO₂  (GtCO₂e) above the level that would provide a likely chance of remaining on the least-cost pathway consistent with holding warming below 2°C. 

Dubai Downtown Night Scene. Most of  Dubai's energy
is diesel generated  Photo: Get in Travel

“Africa cannot risk failure of implementing serious adaptation measures, especially with Africa’s predicted population rise of 2 billion by 2050 and the current ecosystem degradation trajectory,” said President of AMCEN and Minister of State for the Environment, United Republic of Tanzania, Dr. Terezya L. Huvisa.

Africa Warming

In a ‘3.5-4°C World’, Africa’s coastline is expected to undergo sea-level rise 10 per cent higher than the rest of the world, with several countries particularly hard hit. 

In Guinea-Bissau, Mozambique, and The Gambia, up to 10 per cent of the entire population would risk flooding risks annually by 2100.

Arid areas in Africa, which already represent about half of the continent’s land area, are expected to increase by 4 per cent. 

If we enter a ‘3°C World’, effectively all of the present maize, millet, and sorghum cropping areas across Africa would become unsustainable for current strains.

In a ‘4°C World’, southern Africa will likely see decreases of up to 30 per cent in rainfall each year. 

At the same time, north, west, and southern Africa will also see declines of 50-70 per cent in groundwater recharge, according to the study.

The study further details how agriculture, fisheries and water access—among other sectors—will be impacted. 

The degree to which these sectors will be impacted will depend on whether commitments are kept and whether better adaptation practices can be implemented.

The study points to a high risk of biodiversity loss, as species may be unable to migrate to suitable climates. 

Up to 97 per cent of the 5,000 plant species studied could undergo range size reductions or shifts, while up to 40 per cent could experience total range elimination by 2085 in a ‘2°C World’ scenario.

At the same time, a ‘3.5-4°C’ scenario projects fish declines in freshwater lakes across places such as Chilwa, Kariba, Malawi, Tanganyika and Victoria, which would jeopardize the source of more than 60 per cent of the protein needs of the surrounding communities. 

Perhaps the most drastic example of the effects of climate change in Africa is that coral reefs—which are essential support systems for marine fisheries, tourism, and coastal protection against sea-level rise and storm surges—are projected to be entirely extinct before we even enter a ‘4°C World’.

Adaptation Funding: Opportunities and Challenges 

How well Africa deals with these climate impacts, now and in the future, will be co-determined by the funding it receives. 

Adaptation measures such as early warning systems and coastal zone management to counter sea-level rise offer a possibility of minimizing these impacts, but Africa’s capacity to adapt depends critically on access to funding. 

Traceable funding disbursed in Africa for climate change adaptation through bilateral and multilateral channels for the years 2010 and 2011 amounted to USD $743 and $454 million, respectively, although this figure does not fully account for the funding channeled through Development Finance Institutions, for example the World Bank, or national development banks.

To meet the adaptation costs estimated in the report for Africa by the 2020s, funds disbursed annually would need to grow at an average rate of 10-20 per cent a year from 2011 to the 2020s. 

There is currently no clear, agreed pathway to provide these resources.

The UN Framework Convention on Climate Change’s developed country Parties have committed to provide funds rising to USD $ 100 billion annually by 2020 through the “Green Climate Fund”—established by the 2010 Cancun Agreements—from public and private sources, for both adaptation and mitigation actions in across all developing countries by 2020. 

However, rules drawing up the allocation of funding for adaptation have yet to be defined and await negotiation.

At this stage, there is no clear sense of how much of these funds would benefit countries in the African region, nor of the likely allocation between adaptation and mitigation funding. 

Until these issues are resolved it is not possible to assign a share of the USD $100 billion annual commitment by 2020 to Africa.

Assuming funding for adaptation efforts in Africa reached adequate levels by 2020 and assuming the world gets on track to limit warming to below 2°C, annual funding for adaptation efforts in Africa still needs to rise a further 7 per cent a year from the 2020s onwards to keep pace with continuing sea-level rise and warming peaking below 2°C after the 2050s. 

This is considerably less than the funding challenge if the current mitigation efforts were not increased, and warming reached 3.5-4°C by 2100. 

In this case, the scaling up of annual funds would need to be 10 per cent every year after the 2020s.

Challenged Capacity

In all scenarios, the capacity of African communities to cope with the effects of climate change on different economic sectors and human activities is expected to be significantly challenged, and potentially overwhelmed, by the magnitude and rapid onset of climate change impacts.

To reduce the magnitude of the impacts and their repercussions for African livelihoods, adaptation measures at different levels, from households to national and regional levels, are being planned and implemented and need to be further supported and strengthened. 

A shrinking river in Kajiado County, Kenya.  Photo: Njenga Hakeenah

The measures include developing early-warning systems for floods, droughts or fires to help populations anticipate and prepare for the occurrence of extreme events, irrigation, improvement in water storage capacity, reforestation to protect surface water systems, sustainable use of groundwater resources, desalinization of seawater, and rainwater catchments and storage to maintain sufficient and reliable access to freshwater for human and agricultural needs.

Most of the Middle Eastern countries already desalinate their water but it comes at a huge cost to the govt. This would mean it could be unachievable on the continent unless resources are available large scale.

Other measures include city infrastructure protection measures such as seawalls, dykes, wave breakers and other elements of coastal zone management, as well as city-level food storage capacity and urban agriculture to enhance food security and improving design and drainage technology of sanitation facilities to reduce the risk of water-borne diseases in the aftermath of extreme weather events.

The majority of these and other adaptation measures require an anticipatory and planned approach, as well as large investments. The need for planned capital-intensive adaptation is greater at high than low warming levels. 

Dwindling Agricultural output and 40 Million+ Kenyans to feed

Addressing food insecurity in Kenya through seed quality assurance

Njenga Hakeenah

November 15 2013

Since the discovery of the Maize Lethal Necrosis Disease MLND in Kenya in the year 2011, efforts to manage it have been in high gear.

This is to ensure that the country does not suffer food insecurity where maize is the staple food.

The Constitution of Kenya declares access to food as one of the basic Human Rights thus underscoring the importance of seeds and agricultural productivity.

Agriculture, livestock and fisheries Cabinet secretary Felix Koskei says globalisation and creation of trade and marketing blocks has expanded the market. Due to this, he says, Kenya envisions becoming “a globally competitive, prosperous country with a high quality of life for all its citizens” by the year 2030, as spelt out in the latest development blueprint: The Kenya Vision 2030.

He adds, “This should serve to encourage collaborators and the private sector to participate in the agricultural industry. This can be attested by the harmonization of seed policies, laws and regulations that have been going on in the EAC, ASARECA, and COMESA which are now in the implementation stage.”

Koskei says this will greatly influence the faster and efficient movement of seed in the region, hence access by the farmer challenging the Seed industry to take up the challenge and satisfy the market needs.

The Kenya Government has established-with funds from the Syngenta and the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundations established the Naivasha Maize Lethal Necrosis Screening facility.

The International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center CIMMYT's Dr George Mahuku says MLND  affects seed production which in turn affects food security.

Dr. George Mahuku explains the MLND to seed trade stakeholders
at the Marula Farm Test Site in Naivasha Photo: Njenga Hakeenah

“If seed quality is compromised, all other inputs will not help much as the source of crop life is not completely viable to give quality life”, adds Dr. Mahuku. This in turn he says, compromises productivity affecting yields as well as probably contaminating future crops if the seeds are harvested and used later.

In a country where biotechnology is frowned upon and treated with scepticism, Dr. Mahuku opines that it could be the solution to managing MNLD as genetics could play a key role towards this end. He also advocates crop rotation and using clean seeds.

Kenya’s reliance on maize has threatened other food crops-mostly referred to as orphan crops- making it hard to address food insecurity.

Dr James Nyoro, an agronomist says of the overreliance on maize, “When there's no maize, Kenyans say there's no food even when there's a lot of yam.” Nyoro adds Kenyans need to move away from this mentality and adopt other crops for food if they are to avoid the perennial food shortages and in many cases droughts.

Orphan crops like sorghum, millet and others have for long been sidelined from meal tables which gave maize an edge but risking the country’s food security.

“The country needs to diversify if it is to comfortably feed the burgeoning population. Otherwise if we stick with the same old policies and structures, this will remain a dream for a country aiming to be a middle income country by 2030.” Nyoro quips.

The adoption of several food crop varieties would give Kenya an advantage in feeding the burgeoning population. The government is in the meantime mulling a two child per family policy in a bid to slow down population growth.

With this growth and speaking at a time when the country has experienced huge losses occasioned by the MLN disease, Dr. Nyoro opines that policies should also be put in place and implemented especially surrounding seeds whose quality determines the harvest outcomes.

He opines that Kenya's seed industry is dominated by one company and which is a threat to food security. He adds that the company had access to publicly developed materials and continually receives subsidies from government so it can offer seed prices at subsidized levels. However this lack of a level playing field has occasioned high costs but low quality seeds risking food insecurity.

The newly commissioned Maize Lethal Necrosis Screening facility in
Naivasha Photo: Njenga Hakeenah 

Kenya’s vision 2030 is heavily premised on the success of ICT and agriculture which remains the single biggest employer at 24% of the GDP.

Syngenta East Africa’s MD Walter Njenga says food demand is on an increase and it’s challenged by low productivity. He says technology can play a major role in ensuring that Kenya becomes food sufficient. This is echoed by the Kenya seed Trade Association of Kenya STAK’s Chair Azariah Soi who intimates that adopting innovative technologies will increase agricultural productivity placing Kenya in an advantage position to deal with food insecurity.

Storify link: http://storify.com/Hakeenah/stakcongress

The issue of biotechnology and especially around genetically modified organisms GMO remains shrouded in mystery in Kenya. Those against GMOs fear that the foods will be a threat to health and also to indigenous farming. Those who are pro-GMO say that the fears are unfounded and this means will keep experiencing the perennial food shortages. They say that biotechnology should be used to augment agricultural output.

Wanjiru Kamau from the Kenya Organic Agricultural Network says it is better to continue with conventional and traditional farming rather than introduce a technology which may prove fatal in the future.

As an organic farmer she feels investing in GMOs would be a risk and a gamble with the future food security issues.

http://www.mixcloud.com/Hakeenah/do-not-outsource-africas-food-security/

And as this tug of war between those pro and con Biotechnology continues, the country is losing billions invested in research as well as unnecessary deaths due to lack of food.

If this continues, then it means that the country's ambition of attaining food security and the Blueprint Vision 2030 remains a mirage.